ObamaCare Repeal is Possibly Dead
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« on: July 18, 2017, 03:21:51 am »

It ain't over til it's over, but I think this may be the end. ObamaCare is most likely here to stay  Cheers

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/342447-two-more-gop-senators-defect-on-healthcare-bill
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2017, 05:16:42 am »

It ain't over til it's over, but I think this may be the end. ObamaCare is most likely here to stay  Cheers

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/342447-two-more-gop-senators-defect-on-healthcare-bill

I personally think you may be correct, but I don't think you get the implications.
Obamacare is a massive failure and doomed to collapse completely.  It is already "terminally ill".
The assumption was that the republicans would come up with a replacement plan.. but frankly, there is no plan that is going to make people happy.  The underlying reason for that is whenever something is insured, the cost increase to take advantage of the insurance payouts - making it virtually impossible for anybody without insurance to get healthcare.  A simple example of this is with cars.  The costs for auto repairs are completely different when paid "out of pocket" vs paid "by insurance". 
So, there is no magical health care plan that is going to work. 
The democrats have no plan to fix Obamacare.
The republican plan won't work either. 
Many republicans would rather just let Obamacare collapse and not offer another healthcare plan.

Socialized medicine only works in countries such as Cuba.. where health care costs are very low.  Doctors work for low wages, and it is next to impossible to sue a doctor for malpractice.   It's like that old lesbian expression:   "You can't eat Kate and Edith too!" 

So, the choices are:
Repeal Obamacare - resulting in going back to pre-Obama healthcare.
Repeal and replace Obamacare - resulting in temporarily offering a republican version of healthcare which will also fail - which eventually results in going back to pre-Obama healthcare. 
Doing nothing - resulting in Obamacare's inevitable collapse - with nothing to replace it other than returning to pre-Obama healthcare. 

Politically, don't forget that Trump is not really a republican.  He's not in bed with any political machine. 

The end result:
Healthcare will return to pre-Obama healthcare
Republicans will lose control of congress, however Trump will get his tax cut in his first term.
Trump will win re-election in 2020.. and during those 8 years, he will pack the Supreme Court with conservative judges which will last for decades.   (Goodbye "Roe vs Wade") 
The economy will do extremely well due to Trump, and when it comes down to it.. people care more about the economy when they go to the voting booths more than anything else. 
In Trump's second term, I doubt he will be able to get any meaningful legislation out of congress.  Congress might come up with some lame democrat backed healthcare bill, but Trump will just veto it. 

The losers - the democrat party, the republican party, people with health problems, women who want abortions
The winners - Trump, the economy, healthy people, people with money to invest, workers

This message is unusual for me in that it is my OPINION instead of irrefutable facts. 
I am very interested to see any other opinions. 
The only other opinion I see so far is RoyalCrown seeking to retain Obamacare - but I would then ask RC if he thinks Obamacare can work without being revised.  Obamacare is going down like the Titanic - and THAT is not an opinion.
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2017, 05:39:49 am »

It ain't over til it's over, but I think this may be the end. ObamaCare is most likely here to stay  Cheers

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/342447-two-more-gop-senators-defect-on-healthcare-bill

I personally think you may be correct, but I don't think you get the implications.
Obamacare is a massive failure and doomed to collapse completely.  It is already "terminally ill".
The assumption was that the republicans would come up with a replacement plan.. but frankly, there is no plan that is going to make people happy.  The underlying reason for that is whenever something is insured, the cost increase to take advantage of the insurance payouts - making it virtually impossible for anybody without insurance to get healthcare.  A simple example of this is with cars.  The costs for auto repairs are completely different when paid "out of pocket" vs paid "by insurance". 
So, there is no magical health care plan that is going to work. 
The democrats have no plan to fix Obamacare.
The republican plan won't work either. 
Many republicans would rather just let Obamacare collapse and not offer another healthcare plan.

Socialized medicine only works in countries such as Cuba.. where health care costs are very low.  Doctors work for low wages, and it is next to impossible to sue a doctor for malpractice.   It's like that old lesbian expression:   "You can't eat Kate and Edith too!" 

So, the choices are:
Repeal Obamacare - resulting in going back to pre-Obama healthcare.
Repeal and replace Obamacare - resulting in temporarily offering a republican version of healthcare which will also fail - which eventually results in going back to pre-Obama healthcare. 
Doing nothing - resulting in Obamacare's inevitable collapse - with nothing to replace it other than returning to pre-Obama healthcare. 

Politically, don't forget that Trump is not really a republican.  He's not in bed with any political machine. 

The end result:
Healthcare will return to pre-Obama healthcare
Republicans will lose control of congress, however Trump will get his tax cut in his first term.
Trump will win re-election in 2020.. and during those 8 years, he will pack the Supreme Court with conservative judges which will last for decades.   (Goodbye "Roe vs Wade") 
The economy will do extremely well due to Trump, and when it comes down to it.. people care more about the economy when they go to the voting booths more than anything else. 
In Trump's second term, I doubt he will be able to get any meaningful legislation out of congress.  Congress might come up with some lame democrat backed healthcare bill, but Trump will just veto it. 

The losers - the democrat party, the republican party, people with health problems, women who want abortions
The winners - Trump, the economy, healthy people, people with money to invest, workers

This message is unusual for me in that it is my OPINION instead of irrefutable facts. 
I am very interested to see any other opinions. 
The only other opinion I see so far is RoyalCrown seeking to retain Obamacare - but I would then ask RC if he thinks Obamacare can work without being revised.  Obamacare is going down like the Titanic - and THAT is not an opinion.


Actually, this message is unusual for you because (1) you actually stayed on message without massive deflection and (2) you actually remained civil. Thank you Frederick. Please, more responses like this. This is truly unprecedented. You stated your opinion and defended it without a single childish name.

I disagree heavily with what this means. Needing to do something, I believe Republicans will either announce they will work with Democrats to fix the problems with the ACA or they will try to move on (as you said) to giving rich people the tax cuts they want. The problem with the latter is that Republicans burned their political capital (which wasn't much) on this ACA repeal effort. The pressure from those who do not want to see the wealthy receive huge tax cuts plus the fact that our president has no credibility will stomp out any effort to pass tax reform to benefit the wealthy. This failed and that will fail also. This is what happens when a president wins with a flimsy 77,000 spread across three state electoral victory. There are more than 77,000 people who DID NOT vote who DO NOT want this president or anything he is about. He could help by staying far, far away from anything the Republicans want to do. You're right, he is not a republican but the (R) beside his name and the fact that he ran for their ticket and won is bringing their party down. Those special elections they won won't mean anything when Virginia and New Jersey vote for their statewide officials this year. Those upcoming Democratic victories will make a big difference later this year.
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« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2017, 05:45:06 am »

Mitch McConnell just announced he will seek a full repeal of ObamaCare. I guess the Republicans do not care about getting reelected next year.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/two-more-health-care-defections-dooms-current-gop-bill-n783926
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« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2017, 06:05:11 am »

It ain't over til it's over, but I think this may be the end. ObamaCare is most likely here to stay  Cheers

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/342447-two-more-gop-senators-defect-on-healthcare-bill

There isn't much information.. but look at what I found on CNN just now:  "McConnell said in a statement late Monday that the Senate would vote in the coming days on a bill that would delay the repeal of Obamacare for two years"
My interpretation of that is the Senate would have to pass a bill to prevent the repeal of Obamacare for 2 years.  Is that your understanding also?   I can't imagine that any republican would vote to delay the repeal.  That would be political suicide.  Also, if that is a bill, Trump could veto it.. and Trump has said as recently as TODAY that he wants Obamacare repealed NOW - with the reasoning that once it is repealed, it will force democrats to cooperate on replacement healthcare legislation.
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« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2017, 06:10:46 am »

It ain't over til it's over, but I think this may be the end. ObamaCare is most likely here to stay  Cheers

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/342447-two-more-gop-senators-defect-on-healthcare-bill

There isn't much information.. but look at what I found on CNN just now:  "McConnell said in a statement late Monday that the Senate would vote in the coming days on a bill that would delay the repeal of Obamacare for two years"
My interpretation of that is the Senate would have to pass a bill to prevent the repeal of Obamacare for 2 years.  Is that your understanding also?   I can't imagine that any republican would vote to delay the repeal.  That would be political suicide.  Also, if that is a bill, Trump could veto it.. and Trump has said as recently as TODAY that he wants Obamacare repealed NOW - with the reasoning that once it is repealed, it will force democrats to cooperate on replacement healthcare legislation.

Nope. ACA has majority consensus approval and even when you call it ObamaCare, it still has majority approval. A repeal vote will satisfy the Republican base but will awaken a ton of people who otherwise checked out of politics recently. Something similar to this happened in 2006. People checked out and stayed away during the 2004 presidential election, Republicans had some significant missteps and a large number of people got pissed over those missteps and turned out in large numbers giving Democrats a sweeping victory. Repealing the ACA will no doubt awaken millions. Also, just the threat of taking away those Medicaid funds being used to help fight the opioid crisis in counties the president won is not a good look at all. Saying that there will be a delay also won't help them. All everyone will hear from Republicans and the president is, "I am going to take away what you currently have and replace it with nothing and I do not care that you are battling opioid addiction." Period.
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« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2017, 07:52:13 am »

They said the same about the House bill and it still came back and passed. I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope they give up on the so-called "Better" Care Reconciliation Act and start fresh. Hopefully without being so MEAN to poor people.   Blinking

I applaud the Senators who didn't crumble to pressure and stood their ground on principle.
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2017, 08:02:51 am »

It ain't over til it's over, but I think this may be the end. ObamaCare is most likely here to stay  Cheers

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/342447-two-more-gop-senators-defect-on-healthcare-bill

There isn't much information.. but look at what I found on CNN just now:  "McConnell said in a statement late Monday that the Senate would vote in the coming days on a bill that would delay the repeal of Obamacare for two years"
My interpretation of that is the Senate would have to pass a bill to prevent the repeal of Obamacare for 2 years.  Is that your understanding also?   I can't imagine that any republican would vote to delay the repeal.  That would be political suicide.  Also, if that is a bill, Trump could veto it.. and Trump has said as recently as TODAY that he wants Obamacare repealed NOW - with the reasoning that once it is repealed, it will force democrats to cooperate on replacement healthcare legislation.

Nope. ACA has majority consensus approval and even when you call it ObamaCare, it still has majority approval. A repeal vote will satisfy the Republican base but will awaken a ton of people who otherwise checked out of politics recently. Something similar to this happened in 2006. People checked out and stayed away during the 2004 presidential election, Republicans had some significant missteps and a large number of people got pissed over those missteps and turned out in large numbers giving Democrats a sweeping victory. Repealing the ACA will no doubt awaken millions. Also, just the threat of taking away those Medicaid funds being used to help fight the opioid crisis in counties the president won is not a good look at all. Saying that there will be a delay also won't help them. All everyone will hear from Republicans and the president is, "I am going to take away what you currently have and replace it with nothing and I do not care that you are battling opioid addiction." Period.

Before I get to my reply.. I would like to touch on the "opiod" issue.  I have seen people on opiods going through withdrawals.  They are in AGONY and they claim it feels like their bones are going to explode.  They would do absolutely anything to get more opiods, and every one of them I asked said they would use them again as soon as they could get their hands on them.  I'm wondering how they got hooked on opiods to begin with.  

Anyway.. back to my message.. what are they talking about in having a bill to delay the repeal of Obamacare for 2 years?   Also, Obamacare is on a death spiral.  I believe it is in September that many of the policies premiums will rise another 14%

Lastly.. you mention that millions of people will be pissed about losing their handouts.  I would be pissed too!
BUT.. there are also millions of healthy people who do not want to be forced to buy health insurance.  Why should they be forced to pay for something they don't want?    Should people who don't own a car be forced to buy car insurance?  Should people who don't own a home be forced to buy home insurance?  Why should people who are healthy be forced to pay for health insurance?  

Frankly, healthcare is a no win situation.
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« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2017, 12:38:15 pm »

They said the same about the House bill and it still came back and passed. I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope they give up on the so-called "Better" Care Reconciliation Act and start fresh. Hopefully without being so MEAN to poor people.   Blinking

I applaud the Senators who didn't crumble to pressure and stood their ground on principle.

Something you said caught my eye...   you are saying that the Republican's plan is "MEAN" to poor people. 
How's this for being mean?  Obamacare REQUIRES everybody to purchase health insurance.  The premise is that the people who don't need or use the insurance will subsidize those that do.  Is that fair?  Seems to me.. requiring people making minimum wage to purchase health insurance is mean. 
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« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2017, 10:53:52 pm »

The only way that ObamaCare collapses is if Trump pulls the funding. It's doing quite well. The insurers are paying $98 profit per member per month. That almost double what they made last year.
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« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2017, 01:04:14 am »

The only way that ObamaCare collapses is if Trump pulls the funding. It's doing quite well. The insurers are paying $98 profit per member per month. That almost double what they made last year.

Most likely, it won't collapse. Many insurance companies and market experts have said the health insurance market is either near or at stability. If this administration and the Republicans take action to make things worse, they will pay a hefty cost for it. Everyone is paying attention right now. This isn't 2010 or 2014 where you had record low turnout and no one was paying attention to anything. All people need is something to be highly upset over and they will blame who is in power. Who currently runs Congress and the White House right now? It doesn't matter if the president isn't really a Republican, he is the president and he ran on their ticket. The first midterm of a new president---especially if he's highly unpopular---usually goes the same way: his party loses control of Congress. The only way out of this for Republicans is to leave the ACA in place and work with states to create their own exchanges and provide more subsidies or a combination of subsidies and Medicaid options for those too poor to qualify for tax subsidies. ObamaCare is the first step towards universal coverage and there's no going back obviously. And this delay talk is nonsense. They had 7 years to come up with something, got their president and still passed nothing. Now we're supposed to believe they'll come up with something in 2 years? Good luck with that one  Grin
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« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2017, 01:23:04 am »

I really don't know why they don't encourage more Medicaid waivers.  My state has had one since the Clinton administration (and renewed it just before Obama left office until 2020).  This gives power to the states which they claim to want even though only a handful of them created their own ACA exchanges.  It gives states more flexibility to design healthcare plans that they can feel all warm and fuzzy about.

Pence got a waiver too and they did something a little different in his state in regards to the Medicaid expansion population.  I personally don't like it but at least they did something.   It's still better than nothing.
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2017, 05:18:53 pm »

I really don't know why they don't encourage more Medicaid waivers.  My state has had one since the Clinton administration (and renewed it just before Obama left office until 2020).  This gives power to the states which they claim to want even though only a handful of them created their own ACA exchanges.  It gives states more flexibility to design healthcare plans that they can feel all warm and fuzzy about.

Pence got a waiver too and they did something a little different in his state in regards to the Medicaid expansion population.  I personally don't like it but at least they did something.   It's still better than nothing.


Actually, you hit upon something very significant.  Health care costs vary tremendously state to state.  Therefore, it only makes sense to have each state have it's own health care system. 
Here's something that annoys me... It costs about $2200 per eye to have laser treatment on them.. which only takes less than a minute to perform.  It costs roughly $2000 to replace a tooth, and there are no discounts for multiple teeth. 
My point being.. there is no end to the amount of money that can be sucked up by healthcare. 
Before they start giving healthcare away to everybody.. they should first get healthcare costs under control.   I have a great example for that..  there was this guy who bought the rights to an AIDS medication..  and decided to raise the price from $13.50 per pill to $750 per pill.  That is a markup of 5600%   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Shkreli
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« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2017, 11:33:59 pm »

ObamaCare gave states the option of creating their own exchanges. More than half the states (mostly in the south) decided to let the Federal government run it instead.  These people claim to not want big government but their actions speak louder than words.

One of the problems with healthcare costs is the fee for service system. Most industries are ruled by the law of supply and demand. The more supply you have of something the cheaper it is. Not true in healthcare. Miami Dade County in Florida has the highest number of doctors per capita in the country. As a result they have the highest Medicare costs in the country because those doctors have to see more patients and order more tests than doctors in other areas.   We have to fix that.

ObamaCare created a new type of payment methodology known as Accountable Care Organizations. Basically payments are made based on a persons health, not by how many times they visit a doctor. Obviously there are problems with that but it's still way too early to know whether or not this will save any money.

This is one of the reasons you can't simply repeal ObamaCare. I used to work for a different ObamaCare cost savings program that has been up and running since 2013. You can't just repeal these things. Not only will it kill people (and yes people would absolutely die if that program simply disappeared) but it would also increase healthcare costs for these sub groups of patients.
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« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2017, 06:38:52 am »

They said the same about the House bill and it still came back and passed. I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope they give up on the so-called "Better" Care Reconciliation Act and start fresh. Hopefully without being so MEAN to poor people.   Blinking

I applaud the Senators who didn't crumble to pressure and stood their ground on principle.

Something you said caught my eye...   you are saying that the Republican's plan is "MEAN" to poor people. 
How's this for being mean?  Obamacare REQUIRES everybody to purchase health insurance.  The premise is that the people who don't need or use the insurance will subsidize those that do.  Is that fair?  Seems to me.. requiring people making minimum wage to purchase health insurance is mean. 

You raise a good point. But what is the alternative? From what I have read and know about how insurance works- you need a large pool of both healthy and unwell people to buy into it for the system to work. Yes, the healthy subsidize the unhealthy- but that's how insurance companies can afford to keep everyone covered. And while it MAY SEEM UNFAIR to the healthy- the logic behind the whole system is that EVENTUALLY the healthy will wind up being sick so they will reap the benefits of the system in turn.

If only the sick got insurance the whole system would just collapse. It's like paying it forward- yes you are healthy today and you're paying for some sick guy- but eventually it will all come around and benefit you when it's you or a loved one who is suddenly struck down by an illness.

REQUIRING people to buy in, even when they don't need it yet, is the only way to keep things going. If you allow them to opt out- the system would fail. That's why the Trumpcare proposals wind up causing so many millions of people to lose their coverage.
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« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2017, 06:53:48 am »

They said the same about the House bill and it still came back and passed. I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope they give up on the so-called "Better" Care Reconciliation Act and start fresh. Hopefully without being so MEAN to poor people.   Blinking

I applaud the Senators who didn't crumble to pressure and stood their ground on principle.

Something you said caught my eye...   you are saying that the Republican's plan is "MEAN" to poor people. 
How's this for being mean?  Obamacare REQUIRES everybody to purchase health insurance.  The premise is that the people who don't need or use the insurance will subsidize those that do.  Is that fair?  Seems to me.. requiring people making minimum wage to purchase health insurance is mean. 

You raise a good point. But what is the alternative? From what I have read and know about how insurance works- you need a large pool of both healthy and unwell people to buy into it for the system to work. Yes, the healthy subsidize the unhealthy- but that's how insurance companies can afford to keep everyone covered. And while it MAY SEEM UNFAIR to the healthy- the logic behind the whole system is that EVENTUALLY the healthy will wind up being sick so they will reap the benefits of the system in turn.

If only the sick got insurance the whole system would just collapse. It's like paying it forward- yes you are healthy today and you're paying for some sick guy- but eventually it will all come around and benefit you when it's you or a loved one who is suddenly struck down by an illness.

Yes.. but plenty of people buy insurance when they are healthy - just in case they do get sick.   People should not be forced to piss their money away on health insurance they don't want or need.  On the other hand... why should health insurance be guaranteed to people who are high risk?  If someone smokes 3 packs of unfiltered cigarettes per day, drinks a liter of whiskey per day, shoots heroin every night, eats nothing but  hot dogs and candy.. and uses a motorcycle without wearing a helmet... don't put me in the same insurance plan as them!
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« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2017, 01:54:00 pm »

They said the same about the House bill and it still came back and passed. I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope they give up on the so-called "Better" Care Reconciliation Act and start fresh. Hopefully without being so MEAN to poor people.   Blinking

I applaud the Senators who didn't crumble to pressure and stood their ground on principle.

Something you said caught my eye...   you are saying that the Republican's plan is "MEAN" to poor people. 
How's this for being mean?  Obamacare REQUIRES everybody to purchase health insurance.  The premise is that the people who don't need or use the insurance will subsidize those that do.  Is that fair?  Seems to me.. requiring people making minimum wage to purchase health insurance is mean. 

You raise a good point. But what is the alternative? From what I have read and know about how insurance works- you need a large pool of both healthy and unwell people to buy into it for the system to work. Yes, the healthy subsidize the unhealthy- but that's how insurance companies can afford to keep everyone covered. And while it MAY SEEM UNFAIR to the healthy- the logic behind the whole system is that EVENTUALLY the healthy will wind up being sick so they will reap the benefits of the system in turn.

If only the sick got insurance the whole system would just collapse. It's like paying it forward- yes you are healthy today and you're paying for some sick guy- but eventually it will all come around and benefit you when it's you or a loved one who is suddenly struck down by an illness.

Yes.. but plenty of people buy insurance when they are healthy - just in case they do get sick.   People should not be forced to piss their money away on health insurance they don't want or need.  On the other hand... why should health insurance be guaranteed to people who are high risk?  If someone smokes 3 packs of unfiltered cigarettes per day, drinks a liter of whiskey per day, shoots heroin every night, eats nothing but  hot dogs and candy.. and uses a motorcycle without wearing a helmet... don't put me in the same insurance plan as them!

People are "high risk" for all sorts of reasons. People get lung cancer who have never smoked. It sounds like you are advocating for a system where the government decides who gets to live and who dies based on some sort of lifestyle or moral test. I believe it's what Republicans call a death panel. The truth is that we had death panels pre-Obamacare. We had a system where the "free market" denied access to care for anyone who wasn't healthy. They were selling a product that was meant to help sick people but they refused to sell it to anyone who was sick.
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« Reply #17 on: July 20, 2017, 01:55:31 pm »

They said the same about the House bill and it still came back and passed. I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope they give up on the so-called "Better" Care Reconciliation Act and start fresh. Hopefully without being so MEAN to poor people.   Blinking

I applaud the Senators who didn't crumble to pressure and stood their ground on principle.

Something you said caught my eye...   you are saying that the Republican's plan is "MEAN" to poor people. 
How's this for being mean?  Obamacare REQUIRES everybody to purchase health insurance.  The premise is that the people who don't need or use the insurance will subsidize those that do.  Is that fair?  Seems to me.. requiring people making minimum wage to purchase health insurance is mean. 


There you go disrespecting our President again. Trump said it was mean. I was only agreeing with him.
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« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2017, 02:08:13 pm »

The GOP is full of pieces of shit. I hate them. They put billions in there for their insurance friends as subsidies. That's why Rand Paul didn't vote for it, and I agree with him. If Trump doesn't speak out against it I will turn on Trump immediately. This is a breaking point issue for me. If Trump doesn't call them out for their putting subsidies for the multi-billion dollar insurance industry I will turn on him. This is NOT what we elected him for.
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« Reply #19 on: July 21, 2017, 03:41:46 pm »

It ain't over til it's over, but I think this may be the end. ObamaCare is most likely here to stay  Cheers

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/342447-two-more-gop-senators-defect-on-healthcare-bill

I'm not sure, but I think you meant that the Republicans have given up on trying to pass a new healhcare bill that would repeal / replace Obamacare.
Instead, it looks to me that what they are doing is allowing Obamacare to collapse completely, so that instead of getting blamed for repealing Obamacare and replacing it with something else...   they will look like heroes in passing a new healthcare bill AFTER Obamacare collapses completely and is gone. 
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